So you think you know Brexit. (2)

The great arch-rivals in the pro and anti-lobbies make claim and counterclaim and it occurs to me that they do not so much deliberately lie, as much as they are;

 1) Totally misunderstood,

2)  Have no real understanding of what they are talking about or

3) Telling porkies for the sake of emphasis.

We should expect better from our political leaders.  However, they obviously believe that the collective electorate is half-witted and feel inclined to hyperbole rather than facts, boring as they may be, on whatever side they choose to represent.

It must be obvious now that all the messages of doom and gloom, much like the famous red bus promises, are hyped up, not complete nonsense, but based on fact, that through exaggeration becomes nonsense. Here are some facts:

  1. The UK in 2018 contributed net £9 billion to the EU. £13Bn gross less £4Bn contributions from the EU back to the UK..

You can do a lot with £9 Bn. per annum, but it is certainly short of the red bus promises. We will have to pay £33 Bn as divorce bill. (to get any deal)

  • Regional world growth tables show that Europe is the second-lowest growth region behind Asia, North America, Developing Economies (Ex-Commonwealth countries) and South America.

The above shows a major opportunity to trade independently outside the EU and of course within the EU too.

  • The truth about claims that the UK economy will shrink by 6% per annum is widely misunderstood.

 What is a possibility, is that the UK could lose up to 6% of its growth potential over 15 years if it leaves the EU (depending on the deal). The claim of 6% per annum is widely promulgated and it is complete nonsense. At that rate, the UK economy would virtually disappear in 10 years – complete tosh! These wild claims put forward by the Lib Dems (become dream/fact with Remainers.) seem to imply they are either deliberate liars or they have no idea what they are talking about. I suspect the latter. These inexactitudes are compounded by claims, for example, that the decline and change in automobile production are entirely to do with Brexit when it clearly is not. How ill-informed can they be?.

  • No one, and I mean no one, can accurately predict the opportunity rewards of UK if it can trade freely with the rest of the world and have a free trade deal with the EU. It must have some positive value – hard to forecast and hard to deliver.

Not by chance or slip of the tongue did Angela Merkel warn that if Britain leaves the EU it will in all probability become a very potent competitor.  With freedom to change fiscal rules and attract inward investment, the UK is feared as a threat to the lumbering bureaucracy that is Europe.  The Euro too is saddled with immense problems of viability and despite all the uncertainty still struggles against other currencies including the pound.

In summary, both sides in the Brexit argument are making unfounded claims, some out of over-enthusiasm, some using deliberate scare tactics, some, many out of ignorance. It must be wrong for either side to threaten their adversaries with false claims of unavoidable poverty or ever-expanding and easily achieved growth.

It seems also that there is a strong current of resentment that Politicians are determined to thwart the electorate whilst making up a series of wild claims.  Happily, I think the country has made up its mind and no amount of scaremongering or wild promises will change the collective will.

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