You ain’t seen nothung ,yet!

Will the Covid-19 alter the way that the wold works?  What will happen after the virus is conquered?  Will it be conquered, or will it come again in wave after varied wave?

There is a school which ventures that the future post the virus attack will be much the same but in a more exaggerated way. i.e. Liberal democracies will continue to decline, populists, oligarchs and authoritarian autocrats will increase.  Nation states will resist globalisation.  The USA will continue in its economic war with China.

Interestingly these two great powers have handled the corona virus outbreak quite differently, China with authoritarian power to lock down after a stream of fake news and disinformation.  The USA hopelessly boasting that it was too big and strong to be affected. Brazil also run by a boastful leader is falling into the same trap. China at least understood the gravity of the pandemic, whilst the US has done too little too late to prevent it from becoming the world’s biggest victim.

The exceptions have been Taiwan, South Korea and Germany who have reacted decisively and clearly into testing and lockdown and so defended so far the extreme consequences of the pandemic.

We are yet to see the virus sweep through the countries of high population and low social economies like Nigeria, India and South Africa. There are huge and impossibly large waves of infection and death yet to strike. Yet the world still concentrates on the wealthier states.

Additionally the pandemic will leave in its wake massive economic damage.  Unemployment will exceed even that of the great depression.

Governments of whatever hue must respond in balancing social and economic repair, failure to do so may well result in a revolution that will tear down the pillars of both right and left, at least as we know them today.  I cannot see a day where democratic liberals will rule the day. Let us hope that the strong men and women who fill their places will have the humanity to build a more sensitive world which respects the nature of our species and its habitat.

Looking forward.

The Corvid-19 virus has and continues to wreck our health and economic systems worldwide.

We see different responses around the world, some more successful than others. As we said earlier Totalitarian regimes seem to get better and faster results because their citizens are more likely to do as they are told.

China is an interesting example of regimented responses which confined the spread of the virus and at the same time was able to continue its economy in Shanghai, Beijing and other regions.  Indeed today China is the biggest supplier of protective equipment for health workers in the world. Its economy is still growing albeit at a slower rate.

Lesson one, I guess is ‘do as you’re told’ even if you don’t quite believe it.

Looking forward as the world economy collapses, eventually there will be a recovery of sorts mainly by Governments and the World Bank ploughing Trillions of dollars into all the coffers in the world.

 What happened last time under a much less punitive collapse at the turn of the century, the banks and the dealers recovered first and the ‘man in the street’ came a distant second.

This cannot happen again, because the whole basis of economic growth will have changed. It will have changed with the virtual end of the ‘shopping centre’, ‘the office’ and of course with beginning of the end of the oil based energy sector, and a whole new sector of renewable energy. Unemployment at least in the short term will be greater than experienced since the great depression.

Whilst the totalitarian regimes will recover faster, Western democracies will struggle to adjust, especially if the fiscal and economic readjustments are not what I would style as socially balanced.

If western liberalism is to survive, it must prove itself flexible in balancing corporate and social needs. This is unlikely to come about easily in the USA, the world’s biggest economy. There is great danger that the USA may lurch further to the right, I believe with dreadful consequences.

The European and UK systems will adjust more easily but that does not preclude huge difficulties for the EU.

Looking in the mirror of the next ten years it is hard not to see China leading the world both economically and politically. Beware, and be ready!