We are all used by now to the POTUS Trump tweeting insults and idiocies, but in the trade war with China, Trump is upping the economic risks for not just the US but the world. More particularly, by banning Google from cooperating with Huwaie, Trump has escalated the conflict from a simple trade dispute to one of technical superiority or technical sovereignty.
This move will make China use its position as the main creditor of the US, to manipulate the yen, and pull back on the purchase of American technical products, especially for things like semi conductor and aeronautics, and of course redouble its efforts to develop its own technologies.
Trump by imposing restraints on its allies and others, not to trade with companies such as Huwaie, is forcing many non aligned democracies to make a choice between the US or the Chinese trade and technology alliances. How far Trump will go in pushing anti Chinese technology is anyone’s guess. The imposition of sanctions on those who depend on trade with the US will force them at least in the short term to become unwilling trade partners of the US. Untold problems are bound to arise as the Chinese are vital cogs in so many supply chains.
Europe will have to become the arbiter of trade sense, led by the export economy of Germany, however the US holds the trump card on the defence front of Nato. This is where a push by Russia will be a contributor to pushing Europe further toward the US.
The consequences of an aggressive Chinese trade, technology and diplomatic push may well leave the European zone excluded from the tiger economies such as India, and Indonesia. Japan may well become a hostage to fortune.
Trump is not just a simple nationalist he’s a menace.